Honestly I can’t say I’m totally surprised that the federal investigation into Lance Armstrong has been dropped. The reason for my lack of surprise? The investigation seemed to be dragging on and on. The burden of proof is much higher in these types of cases and while it was rumored that some of Armstrong’s teammates gave it up apparently there was no concrete evidence. The Boulder Report’s Joe Lindsey reported that Armstrong’s ex-teammate Yaroslav Popyvych just replied “nyet” during his two-hour grand juror testimony.

Another more “conspiracy theory” thought is that the fix was in and someone higher up with pull closed this investigation down. Armstrong knows people in high places.

Armstrong, the brand and person, has built up a considerable amount of goodwill. We all know about the LiveStrong Foundation, but not many realized there was a for profit arm of LiveStrong. In fact, few realized that LiveStrong.org has stopped donating money to research at all – and a significant amount goes to marketing. And to be clear, there’s nothing illegal about it – just self serving.

During the Armstrong investigation Barry Bonds and the infamous BALCO case came and went. The final result was Bonds was placed under house arrest for 30 days. Not an encouraging sign for Food and Drug investigator Jeff Novitzky as he was also the central investigator into what could have been the biggest cycling scandal in modern times. All that time and effort and it amounted to an adult “time out” for the baseball player.

If the case had continued and Armstrong was found guilty of fraud, seven Tour de France titles were on the line of being stripped, forcing a complete rewrite of cycling history. And looking at who was on the lower steps of the podium during the Armstrong era, how far down the general classification would the ASO have to go to find a clean winner?

Tyler Hamilton stepped forward and confessed on 60 Minutes to organized doping within the Postal Service team. Yet, nothing happened. Armstrong had by now employed Mark Fabiani, a former White House special council and now professional spin doctor for high-end clients in a fix or companies that need a crisis clean-up. Fabiani railed against Hamilton, Floyd Landis and everyone who dared to throw stones at the Armstrong myth.

Then suddenly the Feds pulled the plug on the criminal investigation. Charles Pelkey said that Novitzky wasn’t made aware of that decision until 30 minutes before the press release. However, Travis Tygert, CEO of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, issued a statement.

“Unlike the U.S. Attorney, USADA’s job is to protect clean sport rather than enforce specific criminal laws. Our investigation into doping in the sport of cycling is continuing and we look forward to obtaining the information developed during the federal investigation.”

A phone call and text message to Mr. Tygert asking about what USADA’s next move might be weren’t answered.

So what does this mean? The Feds were conducting a criminal investigation of Armstrong under the RICO act. USADA investigates for doping in sports. Two different things. While the Feds have a dossier of information it cannot be used by USADA and is sealed forever. If anything does get leaked the person who leaked it can go to jail.

However, as I was about to post this article John Fahey, the president of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), issued a statement.

“A large amount of the evidence gathered is likely to be highly pertinent to doping and WADA expects that this evidence will be shared with relevant anti-doping authorities for them to determine whether any breaches of the anti-doping rules have occurred.”

My gut feeling is that this is posturing to save face. Sure WADA can ask for the evidence, but again, I’ve been told by a lawyer that the evidence is sealed.

So while Tygert says that his organization is continuing to investigate they are facing an uphill battle. USADA has limited funds and they don’t have the legal pull to compel anyone to say anything.

For Landis a couple of things can occur. Allegedly Landis has his own legal suit against Armstrong asking for damages. Think O.J. Simpson. The football player was found not guilty but taken to civil court by the Goldman family where the burden of proof is lower. Armstrong could possibly try to settle with Landis rather than go to court and see his ex-teammates subpenaed and forced to publicly testify. There’s no sealed grand jury to protect them. Or Landis could throw his hands up and walk away from this whole thing.

My personal take on the situation is that the Feds could no longer fight this battle due to political pressure. Releasing the statement late Friday, days before the Super Bowl, promised to push it to the back of the sport pages and by Super Bowl Sunday it’s a distant memory for 99.9% of the population. Also, Fabiani and his partner Chris Lehane worked in the White House and as @RaceRadio stated on Twitter, “worked daily with with Clinton’s lawyer Lanny Breur who is now head of the Fed’s criminal division.” That’s an interesting six-degrees of separation.

I also find it interesting that Armstrong has been deafeningly silent about the conclusion of the case on Twitter – his social media platform of choice when he wants to gloat about something. Did his team of lawyers get a hold of him and confiscate his iPhone to prevent him from saying something damaging?

Many of you have a firm opinion about Armstrong – he’s guilty as sin or he’s a persecuted man. I won’t try to convince you one way or the other. But this will continue and the Lance Armstrong legacy is still not in the clear.

I know we’ve had our differences and words were exchanged. I suspect that the ugliness might have been influenced by a couple of late night Michelob Ultras. I’m willing to put aside our differences: you thinking I’m a complete douchebag, me disappointed about your actions as someone who doped to win the Tour de France and then threw everyone around you under the bus as a method of saving your reputation. But I say let bygones be bygones.

I was inspired to write because recently you started to follow @Festinagirl on Twitter who, to put it mildly, has not thought too highly of your actions as a person. You even replied to her that you’ve been a fan, “always have been.” So I ask, why not follow me? As you know, like FestinaGirl I’ve been very accusatory regarding your Tour wins and your actions, but I’m just an equal opportunity ball-buster (no pun intended).

So what’s in it for you? Well we could DM and I could be your source of snarky 140 character replies to Vaughters or those dickhead triathletes that dare make light of road racers. No offense, but “Cervelo didn’t pay their bills?” and “They still have advertisers” regarding CyclingNews.com as well as the rather passive aggressive comments toward Vaughters aren’t your best work. Focus on the cancer awareness stuff and I’ll be your Twitter insult wingman.

Be a guest on my weekly TourChats show (broadcast by the trendy Vokle) and let’s make up. Did I mention I’ve also been personally affected by cancer? We’ve got plenty to discuss.

Mr RealNikBackTV gives his thoughts in a manner which really breaks down the real question: Who the hell really rides bikes and why would they do that? Through personal observation Mr. RealNikBackTV makes some observations which should be obvious to everyone.

Follow Dan at @dwouri

If there is one person that I am constantly re-twittering it ‘s Dan Wuori aka @dwuori. In a span of 140 words he delivers a cycling punchline that leaves you LOLing . If you are on Twitter immediately start following this very funny guy! So after much begging and pleading @dwuori agreed to write something for my blog. With the Santos Tour Down Under starting on Tuesday Dan wrote this preview of the first UCI race of the year. As usual he’s spot on with his analysis.

I’ll be writing a daily Tour Down Under pieces for Versus and I think I can convince him to contribute to that as well. I love outsourcing.

The Santos Tour Down Under: A Preview by Dan Wuori

After a seemingly endless lull, it’s time for the first race of the UCI ProTour’s 2011 calendar: Australia’s Santos Tour Down Under. This year 18 of cycling’s best teams – and Astana – will all ride the six-stage race in pursuit of the TDU’s prized ochre leader’s jersey (best known for its uniquely Australian front pouch). As the season heats up Down Under, here are a few things worth watching:

Cav vs. Greipel
The 2010 TDU was dominated by HTC-Columbia’s Andre Greipel, widely regarded as the sport’s fastest Gran Fondo rider as the result of an unfortunate intra-team rivalry with fellow sprinter Mark Cavendish. Unwilling to share the spotlight with the talented German, Cavendish not only left his teammate scrounging for table scraps all throughout 2010, but mocked him for accumulating mostly small wins in small races. (In a stinging retort, Greipel crushed the field at the 2010 Presidential Tour of Turkey.)

With Cav in attendance and Greipel now leading Omega Pharma-Lotto it’s safe to say that the 2011 TDU will be a sprinters’ delight. Will the chip on Greipel’s shoulder propel him into ochre or will the Manx Missile simply fulfill his promise to “bump it up to 85%” in the event that an actual sprint breaks out? And will either notice that the guy in the knockoff Sky jersey and oddly-tinted Oakleys is actually a carefully camouflaged Tyler Farrar out to poach the race for Garmin-Cervelo?

Armstrong - like the kookaburra - is known to produce 5-7 offspring each year.

Armstrong Takes a Bow

This year’s TDU also marks Lance Armstrong’s fourth annual, “final race on foreign soil.” While many speculate that the 7x TdF champ has been drawn by a reported $2M appearance fee, one cannot overlook the location’s special symbolism. It is equally likely that Armstrong chose Australia because he – like the kookaburra – is known to produce 5-7 offspring each year.

Regardless of motive, look for Lance to put on a show that will remain unmatched until Comeback 3.0.
Hometown Heroes

Finally, keep a watchful eye on Australia’s homegrown heroes. Oz is home to a number of cycling’s most prominent riders, and while BMC’s Cadel Evans is sitting the week out (after receiving a credible threat that someone intends to stand on his dog), HTC-Highroad’s Mark Renshaw and Radio Shack’s Robbie McEwen will be amongst a gaggle of Aussie riders looking to capitalize on their knowledge of the TDU’s idiosyncratic rules. (Riders should be reminded that in Australia roundabouts flush counterclockwise.)

(Queensland Australia was recently devastated by flooding. As of this writing at least 16 are dead with dozens more missing. The cycling community has embraced this worthy cause, with each of the TDU teams announcing plans to auction a signed team jersey. To bid, visit ebay.com.au starting Sunday, January 16. Donations can also be made directly to the Queensland Flood Relief Appeal at http://www.qld.gov.au/floods/donate.html )

Cleaner look for 2011

Team RadioShack just officially released images of their 2011 kit. In my opinion a better looking design from the red strapless dress look of 2010. All the usual sponsors are on board for the jersey: RadioShack (title sponsor), Trek, and Nike. Along the side panel of the shorts is “The Shack” – the cooler name that the board of directors thought the kids would dig and reportedly what they were going to re-brand the failing stores. One new logo has made its way onto the front of the jersey – the ubiquitous bird icon of Twitter.

From the RadioShack press release, “Since the inception of Team RadioShack, we’ve relied heavily on Twitter to help keep our fans around the world updated and engaged, so we’re excited to embrace them on our 2011 kit.” That well over 140 character statement from the mouth of executive vice president and chief marketing officer for RadioShack Lee Applbaum. “It is a very natural fit for our Team and our brand,” Mr Applbaum succinctly continues.

So is this any surprise to us that RadioShack’s most well known member and seven time Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong will have the small Twitter icon on his chest? It shouldn’t be. The blog, “Mastering the Uphill Shift” correlates some interesting facts about this 140 character form of communication and how it gained a foothold in professional cycling.

“The cycling community is not large and the pro cycling fan base is even more not large. This is where Twitter comes in. Twitter gives us cycling fans a place to find like- minded individuals, a place to follow the pros through their training, races, wins and loses, a place to follow races which aren’t shown on TV or are available online only with Dutch commentary, a place to connect with fellow race watches around the globe. Through Twitter, pro cycling becomes so much more than just what comes through the TV or computer.”

I am interested to see what RadioShack does with this medium of instant communication. Are they using it to remove the middleman (AKA – journalists) to get their message out and to keep their vision on point or whatever executive vice presidents and chief marketing say they do? Ironically earlier this evening I believe @mmmaiko Twittered that Armstrong has the itchy trigger finger with blocking Followers who aren’t “Team Lance.” Will that “Block Follower” button get a rest in 2011?

Anyways its 1:15 in the morning and I needed to get that off my chest. I’ll look for any obvious typos later today.

On the recommendation of a friend I immediately downloaded  a book onto my Kindle, Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal that Rocked Professional Sports by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams. To quote from the Amazon.com description; “This is the complete inside story of the BALCO steroids scandal from the award-winning reporters who broke the news nationally.” While the subject is obviously baseball the parallels to the federal investigation into alleged doping in cycling are uncanny.

I’m not a baseball guy and have never been interested in this country’s national pastime. While I know the big stars of the sport, I can’t tell you positions they play or any statistics that they might have. I know the name Barry Bonds and knew he was guilty of doping. I had read about Mark McGuire and his suspected use of steroids – but that was the extent of my knowledge. I never thought that my lack of baseball knowledge would bite me in the ass.

When the leaked Landis e-mails became front page news during the 2010 Amgen Tour of California I was working for Versus as their “man on the street” doing fun interviews with spectators and video taping the shenanigans for which I’ve become known. However that all ended during stage 5 when the e-mails broke. Landis would only talk to me and one other reporter so I was suddenly the go to guy for Landis information. I was asked to be interviewed for the Versus sports program, The Daily Line. I had a pre-interview and the host asked me did I think Armstrong was going to be the Barry Bonds of cycling. I replied honestly- I don’t know enough about Bonds to say whether Armstrong will or won’t be remembered that way – I don’t know much about baseball players.

When I was interviewed he asked that question anyways and I fumbled through. In the end that exchange was edited out which saved me from the potential embarrassment of not knowing anything significant about baseball. Now after reading a little over half of “Game of Shadows” I wish I could go back and answer that question again.

Interviewed for the Daily Line

I’m at the part of the book where athletes are being brought in front of a grand jury. Fainaru-Wada and Williams described what the athletes would go through.

“The subpoenas frightened many athletes. Their fear helped Novitzky extract confessions.” I can’t help but wonder if that’s what has happened to the riders who have had to appear in front of the grand jury in Los Angeles? Threatened with doing time in a federal penitentiary could get someone to talk openly and honestly about what did or didn’t occur on the Postal Service team bus.

“Before they took the stand, they had to say good-bye to their expensive lawyers and buff, attentive bodyguards, because by law, every witness must go before the grand jury alone.” There are no domestiques there to help, no reassuring words from the director piped into the earpiece – just the athlete and the grand jury.

In the book the authors say that the grand jury wasn’t concerned about individual use and was granting immunity to those who would tell the truth on how they obtained EPO, steroids, human growth hormone and a laundry list of other performance enhancing drugs. Is that what’s going on now in L.A.? Are the feds letting the “smaller fish” loose and just trying to work their way up the food chain to see if there was any organized doping on the Postal Service squad?

If you read the book you’ll notice a couple of similar names: federal agent Jeff Novizky and Travis Tygart, general council for USADA. Anther similarity I’ve noticed is the method that the federal investigators employed in the BALCO scandal. In both the baseball and the ongoing cycling investigation the feds worked quietly and patiently – following the steroid dealer (Greg Anderson) and digging through BALCO’s dumpsters scouring them for bits of information. But near the end of the BALCO investigation the feds had to raid the Conte’s lab early in fear that he had realized that there was an ongoing investigation. From the reports I’ve read the Armstrong investigation is also proceeding at a slow but steady pace with investigators traveling to France and speaking to their European anti-doping counterparts. Like the BALCO investigation Novizky knows that the clock is running and this needs to come some conclusion soon as the statue of limitations is running out.

Beyond the thought of athletes testifying in front of a grand jury how does this affect the landscape of cycling? I’m afraid we will discover that our cycling heroes are just men – tempted or coerced into doping. Or perhaps after all this investigation we’ll find that it was just one man’s wild accusations and nothing more. If riders are found to have used PEDS will events like the Amgen Tour of California disappear? Will TV ratings drop as people consider the sport to have as much authenticity as WWE wrestling? I hope not but realistically speaking if – and I really do mean if – the sport takes that huge body blow, cycling will continue.

Those that read my blog or follow my Twitter know that my father is dying from lung cancer. Back in July he told my mom that if Armstrong beat cancer so could he. And like I said before that isn’t the case.  Even though he has beaten all the odds, the doctors say he won’t see Christmas. But Armstrong gave my father hope and something to grasp onto as he was wracked in pain due to the cancer spreading to his liver, kidney and now his brain. Do I think Lance Armstrong is the Barry Bonds of cycling? I really don’t give a shit – guilty or not he helped my dad and that’s all I care about. I’m still riding because I love it and I’m looking forward to my 2011 racing season – and so should you.

The New York Times today posted on their website more doping news – but it really wasn’t news. According to the New York Times a rider has corroborated Floyd Landis’ claims of doping during the Postal Team years. The rider wished to remain anonymous because, “investigators advised him not to speak publicly about the information he provided. He has not been called before the grand jury that has been convened in Los Angeles to investigate the case.”

The rest of the article doesn’t really disclose any bombshells – just rehashing what we already know: riders are being subpenaed with some being offered “sweetheart” deals to spill their guts about what they may or may not know.

Read the full post at Versus.com.

With Lance Armstrong’s European racing retirement just a couple of weeks away, what’s up next for the seven-time Tour de France champion? At this point rumors abound on what his next move might be.

In the short term he’s still racing the Tour and with his chance of winning the overall completely gone, his only opportunity is to go stage hunting. Bill Strickland, author of Tour de Lance, picks stage 13 as the most probable.

Strickland points to the final climb of the day, the Cote de St. Ferreol, as the location where Armstrong could make his move.

“Armstrong knows that climb well: The last time the Tour finished here was in 2005, and Armstrong, along with favorites such as Jan Ullrich, Alexander Vinokourov, Ivan Basso and others, powered an escape that held a 20-second gap over the field to the finish.”

Stage 13 could be lucky for Armstrong, however it might be a gut reaction for the peloton to mount a chase and not allow the Texan out of sight. I’m wondering if Team Sky might just not organize to assure he never gets more than a couple of pedal strokes ahead of the bunch. I haven’t heard about any war of words lately between Garmin-Transitions and RadioShack, but they might take this as one last opportunity to stick it to Armstrong. But hey, maybe Garmin-Transitions director Matty White is a bigger man than me – I’m just a vengeful guy who enjoys sticking it to a rival.

After the peloton rolls into Paris, they complete their ceremonial hot laps on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées and Armstrong unclips for the last time, where does he go from there?

Read the full post at Versus.com.

This was the stage where the Tour de France was truly going to start. Stage 8 offered up two category 1 climbs–guaranteed to shake up the general classification. Little did we know that this stage was now going to be forever known as the place where Lance Armstrong’s Tour de France career came to an end.

Coming out of a roundabout, the seven-time Tour champion clipped a pedal and went down. The footage shown on television doesn’t do Armstrong’s crash justice. Across the street, and from the sound of it a couple of bottles of wine into their spectating day, a fan caught the moment on video: Armstrong sliding on his back at about 60 kilometers an hour (I’ve included the YouTube video at the bottom of this post). As we all know, Armstrong remounted and finished over 11 minutes behind stage winner Andy Schleck–effectively ending his last chance of winning the Tour de France.

With an 8th Tour win out of reach, will Armstrong now be embraced by the French? Johan Bruyneel said, “the French love the loser more than a winner.” Looking back at cycling history we can see that is a fairly accurate statement. Five-time Tour de France winner Jacques Anquetil was never as popular with his countrymen as Raymound Poulidor, who was known as the eternal second. Here in the States, we put winners on pedestals, which is where Armstrong has resided for the past ten years. The struggle of an also-ran strikes a chord with the French.

Read the full post at Versus.com.

With six days of racing behind us Lance Armstrong has found himself in a position he’s never been in before since his winning streak at the Tour started in 1999 – behind the eight-ball with options to advance toward the top of the general classification running out.

In pre-race sound bites Armstrong has acknowledged the physical superiority of Contador but the telling comment left out was being equally complimentary to the Astana team.

Read the full post at Versus.com.